State-specific fertility rate changes across the USA following the first two waves of COVID-19.

STUDY QUESTION: How did the first two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves affect fertility rates in the USA? SUMMARY ANSWER: States differed widely in how their fertility rates changed following the COVID-19 outbreak and these changes were influenced more by state-level economic, racial, political, and social factors than by COVID-19 wave severity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to already declining fertility rates in the USA, but not equally across states. Identifying drivers of differential changes in fertility rates can help explain variations in demographic shifts across states in the USA and motivate policies that support families in general, not only during crises. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is an ecological study using state-level data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia (n = 51). The study period extends from 2020 to 2021 with historical data from 2016 to 2019. We identified Wave 1 as the first apex for each state after February 2020 and Wave 2 as the second apex, during Fall/Winter 2020-2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: State-level COVID-19 wave severity, defined as case acceleration during each 3-month COVID-19 wave (cases/100 000 population/month), was derived from 7-day weekly moving average COVID-19 case rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). State-level fertility rate changes (change in average monthly fertility rate/100 000 women of reproductive age (WRA)/year) were derived from the CDC Bureau of Vital Statistics and from 2020 US Census and University of Virginia 2021 population estimates 9 months after each COVID-19 wave. We performed univariate analyses to describe national and state-level fertility rate changes following each wave, and simple and multivariable linear regression analyses to assess the relation of COVID-19 wave severity and other state-level characteristics with fertility rate changes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Nationwide, fertility dropped by 17.5 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 1 and 9.2 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 2. The declines following Wave 1 were largest among majority-Democrat, more non-White states where people practiced greater social distancing. Greater COVID-19 wave severity was associated with steeper fertility rate decline post-Wave 1 in simple regression, but the association was attenuated when adjusted for other covariates. Adjusting for the economic impact of the pandemic (hypothesized mediator) also attenuated the effect. There was no relation between COVID-19 wave severity and fertility rate change following Wave 2. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study harnesses state-level data so individual-level conclusions cannot be inferred. There may be residual confounding in our multivariable regression and we were underpowered to detect some effects. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The COVID-19 pandemic initially impacted the national fertility rate but, overall, the fertility rate rebounded to the pre-pandemic level following Wave 2. Consistent with prior literature, COVID-19 wave severity did not appear to predict fertility rate change. Economic, racial, political, and social factors influenced state-specific fertility rates during the pandemic more than the severity of the outbreak alone. Future studies in other countries should also consider whether these factors account for internal heterogeneity when examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises on fertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): L.G.K. received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R00ES030403), M.C. from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (20-A0-00-1005789), and M.L. and E.S. from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES032808). None of the authors have competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Maternal Perceived Stress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Pre-Existing Risk Factors and Concurrent Correlates in New York City Women.

Objective: We examined whether pre-pandemic mental health and sociodemographic characteristics increased the susceptibility of pregnant women and mothers of young children to stress in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Between April and August 2020, we surveyed 1560 women participating in a sociodemographically diverse birth cohort in New York City. Women reported their perceived stress, resiliency, and financial, familial/societal, and health-related concerns. We extracted pre-pandemic information from questionnaires and electronic health records. Results: Pre-pandemic history of depression, current financial difficulties, and COVID-19 infection were the main risk factors associated with high perceived stress. Being Hispanic and having higher resiliency scores and preexisting social support were protective against high perceived stress. Major contributors to current perceived stress were financial and familial/societal factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among pregnant women, changes to prenatal care were common, as were changes to experiences following birth among postpartum women and difficulties in arranging childcare among mothers of young children. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that major risk factors of higher stress during the pandemic were similar to those of other major traumatic events.

COVID-19 Symptoms and Diagnoses among a Sociodemographically Diverse Cohort of Children from New York City: Lessons from the First Wave, Spring 2020.

Early in the pandemic, in the North American epicenter, we investigated associations between sociodemographic factors and rates of pediatric COVID-19 diagnoses in a non-clinical setting and whether symptoms varied by child age. From 20 April-31 August 2020, COVID-19-related data were collected on 2694 children aged ≤ 18 years living in households participating in the New York University Children's Health and Environment Study. We examined differences in rates of subjective and objective diagnoses according to sociodemographic characteristics and differences in reported symptoms by child age. Children of women who were non-Hispanic White, had private health insurance, higher income, or more education were more likely to be diagnosed via WHO criteria or healthcare provider. Children of women who were Hispanic or Asian, reported low income, had less education, or were/lived with an essential worker were more likely to test positive. Older children were less likely to experience cough or runny nose and more likely to experience muscle/body aches, sore throat, headache, and loss of smell or taste than younger children. In conclusion, relying on subjective disease ascertainment methods, especially in the early stage of an outbreak when testing is not universally available, may misrepresent the true prevalence of disease among sociodemographic subgroups. Variations in symptoms by child age should be considered when determining diagnostic criteria.

Factors Associated With Changes in Pregnancy Intention Among Women Who Were Mothers of Young Children in New York City Following the COVID-19 Outbreak.

Importance: Early evidence shows a decrease in the number of US births during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet few studies have examined individual-level factors associated with pregnancy intention changes, especially among diverse study populations or in areas highly affected by COVID-19 in the US. Objective: To study changes in pregnancy intention following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and identify factors possibly associated with these changes. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional, population-based study was conducted among women who were currently pregnant or had delivered a live infant and responded to a survey emailed to 2603 women (n = 1560). Women who were mothers of young children enrolled in the prospective New York University Children's Health and Environment Study birth cohort were included; women who were not currently pregnant or recently postpartum were excluded. Exposures: Demographic, COVID-19-related, stress-related, and financial/occupational factors were assessed via a survey administered from April 20 to August 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pregnancy intentions before the COVID-19 pandemic and change in pregnancy intentions following the outbreak. Results: Of the 2603 women who were sent the survey, 1560 (59.9%) who were currently pregnant or had delivered a live infant responded, and 1179 women (75.6%) answered the pregnancy intention questions. Mean (SD) age was 32.2 (5.6) years. Following the outbreak, 30 of 61 (49.2%) women who had been actively trying to become pregnant had ceased trying, 71 of 191 (37.2%) women who had been planning to become pregnant were no longer planning, and 42 of 927 (4.5%) women who were neither planning nor trying were newly considering pregnancy. Among those who ceased trying, fewer than half (13 [43.3%]) thought they would resume after the pandemic. Of those pre-COVID-19 planners/triers who stopped considering or attempting pregnancy, a greater proportion had lower educational levels, although the difference was not statistically significant on multivariable analysis (odds ratio [OR], 2.14; 95% CI, 0.92-4.96). The same was true for those with higher stress levels (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.20) and those with greater financial insecurity (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.97-1.92. Those who stopped considering or attempting pregnancy were more likely to respond to the questionnaire during the peak of the outbreak (OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.01-4.11). Of those pre-COVID-19 nonplanners/nontriers who reported newly thinking about becoming pregnant, a smaller proportion responded during the peak, although the finding was not statistically significant on multivariable analysis (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.26-1.03). Likewise, fewer respondents who were financially insecure reported newly considering pregnancy, although the finding was not statistically significant (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.46-1.03). They were significantly less likely to be of Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 0.27; 955 CI, 0.10-0.71) and more likely to have fewer children in the home (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40-0.98) or self-report a COVID-19 diagnosis (OR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.31-5.55). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of 1179 women who were mothers of young children in New York City, increased stress and financial insecurity owing to the COVID-19 pandemic paralleled a reduction in pregnancy intention in the early months of the pandemic, potentially exacerbating long-term decreases in the fertility rate.